THIS ARTICLE ABOUT AVAILABILITY CASCADES IS FASCINATING! This article from Quillette taught me some things I did not know. First off, I had never heard the term "availability cascade" before. What's that? From the article you need to read:
Two components make up an availability cascade: an informational cascade and a reputational cascade. An informational cascade creates genuine changes in people’s beliefs by providing plentiful but misleading information. A reputational cascade is a vicious cycle in which individuals feign expressions of conviction to retain social approval.
In the 2007 article “Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation,” professors Cass Sunstein and Timur Kuran described how availability cascades can cause poor decision-making. For example, in the late 1970s in Niagara Falls, New York, an old chemical waste dump, the Love Canal, began leaking. Government officials monitored chemical levels in the area and found that the leaks were too small to cause adverse health effects.
Nevertheless, a local woman, Lois Gibbs, began telling her neighbors that their whole neighborhood was highly toxic. People began blaming their health problems on the Love Canal. As the panic spread, politicians fell in line with their terrified constituents. Soon, anyone who dared to question the unscientific assertions that Love Canal was a disaster was vilified for not caring about sick children. The government evacuated everyone from the Love Canal neighborhood. Hysterical reporting in local and national media spread the terror. Even decades later, opinion polls showed that Americans thought toxic waste dumps were the number one environmental problem—although many other environmental problems are actually more dangerous.
I was very excited to realize this article was written by local nerd and Independence Institute scholar Dave Kopel, and he's on the show at 1:35 to discuss.
THIS POLIS RECALL JUST MAY WORK And if you're not up to speed on the SECOND recall effort directed at Jared Polis, join me at 1:05 to hear from the freedom lovers spearheading this event. I'm beginning to think this is the ONLY way to get his attention about the unhappiness and displeasure many people are feeling from his random acts of covid lockdowns. Find out more, including how to get petitions to sign or share, by clicking here. I'll talk to Kaity Odean about the movement today.
WHY ARE THERE ALREADY PROTESTS PLANNED IN DENVER FOR AFTER THE ELECTION? And why, in the middle of a pandemic where the Mayor just moved Denver to Safer at Home, are there being permits given for protests for thousands of people? If churches are expected to have their First Amendment rights curtailed, why aren't the protesters treated in a similar fashion? Especially with the new outdoor mask mandate implying that covid DOES spread outside? (to be clear, I think the outdoor mask mandate is hot garbage just asking for consistency here). And we also know that the public safety office is planning for violence. Why? If Biden is a shoe in, why bother?
HICK WON'T ANSWER THE COURT PACKING QUESTION And this is utterly unsurprising. He doesn't want to answer any real questions that would indicate that he will be another Democrat stooge in the Senate.
TUCKER CARLSON DESERVES TO BE MADE FUN OF FOR THIS After the bombshell interview with Tony Bobulinski, Tucker Carlson sent HIS only copy of the documents provided via courier service to LA. They disappeared on the way. This is ridiculous. However they were NOT the ONLY copies of the evidence, other copies were provided to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee and the FBI, so we can continue to cover this story. But seriously, Tucker Carlson? This is just stupid. Why admit it even if it happened this way? It just makes him look dumb.
THE WORLD SERIES RATINGS WERE AWFUL Apparently Dave, Grant and me were the only ones who watched the World Series. The ratings seem to be all time lows across the board.
ECONOMIC GROWTH WAS RECORD SETTING IN THE LAST QUARTER And very encouraging to be sure. We still have a long way to go to get back to where we were but this is a GREAT start.
A LITTLE VEGAN IS BORN I have the utmost respect for people who choose not to eat animals because they love animals. I am not one of those people.
2ND GRADERS LEFT ON A ZOOM CALL BY THEIR TEACHER IS AWESOME BECAUSE THE TEACHER IS RECORDING THIS and toast means we're in trouble.
WHO HASN'T GOTTEN THEIR HEAD STUCK IN A HALLOWEEN BUCKET? A deer in New Jersey found itself in that embarrassing position but was helped by a wildlife officer who managed to get it off without too much trouble.
THE DRUG COCKTAIL PRESIDENT TRUMP GOT SEEMS TO WORK BEAUTIFULLY ON COVID And there is a big push for an Emergency Use Authorization to make this cocktail available immediately. The results were very significant. From the article:
Regeneron said patients given the treatment, REGN-COV2, made around 57 percent fewer Covid-19-related medical visits than those given a placebo over a 29-day period.
The drop was around 72 percent in patients with one or more risk factors, such as being over age 50, obesity, cardiovascular, metabolic, lung, liver or kidney disease, or an immunocompromised status.
Last month, the company released early data from the trial showing the treatment reduced viral levels and improved symptoms in non-hospitalized Covid-19 patients. The new data confirm the initial findings, the company said.
Trump wants to make these meds available for free to the American public asap. He's also indicated the vaccine would be free as well. This is a game changer if these results continue to hold up.
THIS INTERVIEW WITH JOHN CLEESE WILL MAKE YOU HAPPY TODAY You all know how I feel about John Cleese. Interviewing him was a high point of my career. This is a short and fun interview with him that I hope you like as much as I did.
MASKS MAY HELP A TINY BIT, BUT THE VIRUS IS GONNA DO WHAT THE VIRUS IS GONNA DO Since there is no Danish Mask Study update, I'm going to share this column from an Associate Professor of Medicine at UCLA's Geffen School of Medicine. In it he links to several important studies that demonstrate IF there is any value to wearing masks, it is very, very small. Read it here. From the article:
While mask-wearing has often been invoked in explanations for rising or falling Covid-19 case counts, the reality is that these trends reflect a basic human need to interact with one another. Claims that low mask compliance is responsible for rising case counts are also not supported byGallup data, which show that the percentage of Americans reporting wearing masks has been high and relatively stable since June. Health officials and political leaders have assigned mask mandates a gravity unsupported by empirical research.
On even shakier scientific ground is the promotion of mask use outdoors.One contact-tracing study identified only a single incident of outdoor transmission among 318 outbreaks. Even the Rose Garden nomination ceremony for Justice Amy Coney Barrett, which the media giddily labeled a “superspreader” event, likely wasn’t; transmission more likely occurred during indoor gatherings associated with the ceremony.
By paying outsize and scientifically unjustified attention to masking, mask mandates have the unintended consequence of delaying public acceptance of the unavoidable truth. In countries with active community transmission and no herd immunity, nothing short of inhumane lockdowns can stop the spread of Covid-19, so the most sensible and sustainable path forward is to learn to live with the virus.
AFTER PUTTING PEOPLE OUT OF WORK, KING POLIS THROW ALMS TO THE POOR Don't get me wrong, I know unemployed people need all the help they can get. However, to give Jared Polis any credit for sending out checks for $375 to people he forced out of work seems just wrong. It's a one time benefit to people making under $52,000 a year and have filed for unemployment this year. How generous of him. Too bad many of these people won't have jobs to go back to.
WHICH CANDY IS THE WORST FOR YOUR TEETH? One dentist has broken down the absolute WORST Halloween candy for your teeth. Isn't Halloween supposed to rot your teeth?
LET'S COMPARE COVID CASES AND MASK WEARING AND SEE WHAT I'M MISSING Haha, just kidding, I'm not missing anything. The virus is gonna do..you know the rest. Read this and check out those graphs!