I'm Back, if a Bit Wobbly on a Wednesday

IT'S NATIONAL TRAIN YOUR DOG MONTH! And I've got a dog trainer on to talk about why properly training your dog is really the key to a happy dog and a happy owner.  I'll talk to celebrity dog trainer Joel Silverman today.  He's on at 2pm.

I SORT OF LOVE THIS KID AND HIS LOVE OF BROADWAY SHOW TUNES And now you can watch it and be happy too. 

TWITTER AND THE TWITTER MOBS MAY BE THE DEATH OF US And I'm sure you've heard about the unfortunate situation that occurred at the Right to Life March last week by now.  I sure hope you've heard the unending clarifications and mea culpas that decent people issued after the whole story began to be much more complicated than many were first lead to believe.  But this column says EXACTLY what I've been thinking about how tribal we've all become.  How angry we've all become.  How ungrateful we've all become.  And I feel like I'm watching a slow motion trainwreck I can't stop.  Now the families are suing over the false reporting and they just might win.  I sure hope they do.  If I were this attorney, I'd also ask that a retraction be featured on the front page of a print edition or the front page of an online edition for at least a week.  Oh, and Twitter also raged at Savannah Guthrie for talking to the student at the center of the controversy. 

AND DON'T GET ME STARTED ON THIS DOUGCO TEACHER As if the nationwide lynch mob weren't bad enough, we have a Douglas County schools middle teacher trying to out the kid in the middle of it and slandering an innocent kid instead.  Do I think she should be fired?  No.  Do I think she needs to be taken out of the classroom permanently or until she can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that her judgment has improved dramatically?  Yes.  I will say I was not the least bit surprised to find out she is active in the teacher's union.  Because this is how the union behaves on the daily.  And holy Hell, her now locked down Twitter feed is FULL of total hate for anyone she disagrees with.  If she were a conservative she'd already have been perp walked out of the school.  

THEY'RE BRINGIN' MEASLES BACK At least among the hippie liberals in Portland, where a measles outbreak is just getting ginned up.  Portland has a very high percentage of unvaccinated kids and we all know that vaccines require herd immunity to really work.  I've gone from being cautious about vaccines to a person who vaccinated my kid, and that was thanks to a patient doctor who took the time to alleviate my fears.  Portland needs that doctor now. 

HERE ARE THE SUPER WOKE OSCAR NOMINEES If you care to look at the list, here it is.  But if your favorite movie didn't carry some deep and socially conscious message, don't think it's gonna win.  Our friend Christian Toto breaks it all down here

I WONDER IF GOVERNOR POLIS VACCINATED HIS KIDS Because he seems the type to fall for junk science.  Many are saying he fell for a significantly flawed study from a Stanford professor as the basis for his pie-in-the-sky 100% renewables by 2050 plan.  Now critics are blowing the plan apart with things like facts and science.  We'll see if it makes a difference.  (Narrator: It indeed did NOT make a difference.)

AND NOW HERE'S TODAY'S "THE MAGIC OF AOC" And it comes from her epic interview on MLK Day where she said this.

I genuinely don't think she knows what the word "dystopian" means.  I've helpfully looked it up for her:





a society characterized by human misery, as squalor, oppression, disease, and overcrowding.

Does that sound like where you live?  Me either.  But this is what passes for leadership these days. 

ARE YOU A SUPER POOPER?  I'VE GOT A GIG FOR YOU! If you don't know that fecal transplants are a thing you must not suffer from gastro intestinal issues.  Now labs are searching for people they deem "super poopers" who have the perfect poop to transplant into someone else's gut.  Find out more here.  

WHO WILL BE THIS ERA'S LENNY BRUCE?  I heard Rush reading this article today about how "wokeness" is killing comedy (it didn't say that, but that's what it SAID) and I thought of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (which is 100% Marvelous and you should watch it) and the role Lenny Bruce played in society back then.  When Lenny Bruce was insulting the Pope and Jesus and everybody else in the world, it was subversive because the old school politicians thought people needed to be protected from such horrible things.  Now we have progressives who are HELL BENT on "protecting" us from any speech they might find offensive.  The world is upside down. 

DENVER'S HOUSING MARKET PROVES SUPPLY AND DEMAND IS A THING I got this press release from some apartment association thingy today:

For Immediate Release

Rents decline for second consecutive quarter as vacancy increases continue six-year streak

DENVER (January 22, 2018) – Average rents declined to $1,456 and average vacancy increased to 5.8% in the Denver metro area during the fourth quarter of 2018 according to the Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent survey published today.

The construction of 12,324 new apartments in 2018 – a volume nearly three times greater than Denver’s long-run average construction levels – was a key factor in the easing of the rental market.

“Due to a surplus of available apartments, average rents declined for the second quarter in a row and ended at $1,456 for 2018,” said Mark Williams, Executive Vice President of the Apartment Association of Metro Denver. “This signals a leveling off of the rental market, which should provide some relief to rental seekers in the Denver metro market.”

Rents peaked at $1,484 in the second quarter of 2018 before falling to $1,465 in the third quarter and declining to $1,456 in the fourth quarter. The cumulative $28 decrease in average rents represents a drop of 1.9% over the past six months.

“After adjusting for inflation average rents have fallen by 2.4% over the last six months,” said Williams. “This means that rents are becoming more affordable for renters.”

The Consumer Price Index for the Western Region, which measures the cost of goods and services purchased by typical consumers, increased by 0.5% during the second half of 2018.

Experts attribute the decrease in average rents to steadily increasing vacancy rates throughout the Denver market.

The metro area’s vacancy rate increased to 5.8% at the end of 2018, up from 5.5% the previous quarter. According to the report, the Denver metro area had an estimated 20,237 vacant apartments at the end of the fourth quarter.

The apartment market reached another milestone in 2018 in the continued march toward a balance between supply and demand as Denver’s vacancy rate moved towards its long-run average.

“2018’s average vacancy rate of 5.9% marked the sixth consecutive year of increasing average annual vacancy rates,” said Teo Nicolais, an Instructor at Harvard Extension School who specializes in real estate. “Currently, the Denver market is less than 1.0% away from its long-run average vacancy rate of 6.8%.”

The average annual vacancy rate most recently bottomed out at 4.6% in 2013 and has been increasing ever since. The last time Denver’s average annual vacancy rate hit 5.9% was in 2010.

Seasonality and a surge in construction contributed to the increase in vacancy. An increase in the number of vacant apartments in the city puts downward pressure on rents.

“Vacancy usually ticks up in the fourth quarter,” said Williams, “Average vacancy increased during the fourth quarter in 33 of the last 38 years; however, that hasn’t always translated into decreasing rents.”

Williams noted that average rents declined during the fourth quarter in only 15 out of the last 38 years.

A key factor to this year’s decrease: new construction.

"In the fourth quarter of 2018, 3,876 new apartment homes were delivered, which is the third-fastest pace of construction in over three decades,” said Nicolais.

The report, which tracks construction activity going back to 1988, found higher deliveries only in the second quarter of 2002 and the third quarter of 2017 which saw new construction of 4,384 and 4,315 units, respectively. According to the report, the late surge in deliveries pushed the total number of apartments built in 2018 to 12,324.

“That’s slightly lower than 2017's record setting construction of 13,348 new units, but it’s nearly three times higher than the 30-year average annual pace of 4,534 new apartments per year,” said Nicolais. “Building at three times the long-run average pace significantly increases the likelihood of oversupplying the market. Oversupply puts downward pressure on rents.”

According to the report, 50,793 new apartments have been built in the metro area over the past five years.

A submarket-by-submarket breakdown shows a wide range of rents in the metro area.

The Denver’s City Park became the metro area’s most expensive submarket with average rents of $1,918 followed by Downtown Denver at $1,853 and Northwest Denver at $1,778 per month.

The lowest average rents in the metro area were once again found in Wheat Ridge at $1,133 followed by Denver South Central at $1,198 and Aurora Central North-East with average rents of $1,237.

Across the Denver metro area, the age of the building played a significant role in determining the average rents.

“As expected, apartment built in 2010 or later topped the list with average rents of $1,796. Apartments built in the 1970’s rented for an average of $1,172 or 35% less than apartments built in this decade,” said Williams. “If renters are looking for less expensive rental prices, buildings built in the 1970s would be an ideal place to start.”

The Denver Metro Area Apartment Vacancy and Rent Report is coordinated and published by the Apartment Association of Metro Denver. The survey is conducted by the University of Denver’s Daniels College of Business and Colorado Economic and Management Associates, and sponsored by The Colorado Department of Housing.

About the Apartment Association of Metro Denver

The Apartment Association of Metro Denver is among the largest multi-family housing trade associations in the country, representing and supporting over 336,000 apartment homes in Denver.

The quarterly Vacancy and Rental Rate Survey is authored by Ron L. Throupe, Ph.D. of the University of Denver Daniels College of Business, and Jennifer L. Von Stroh of Colorado Economic and Management Associates. It has served as a reliable source for comprehensive data and analysis for over 36 years and is made possible through the ongoing participation of the apartment industry and broad support from private and public sector sponsors.

For more information about AAMD, please visit aamdhq.org.

When the price of housing goes up dramatically, you need to look at the things holding it back.  A vast majority of the time it is because they've run out of space or the government is in the way. 

PAGING DR. FIDO, PAGING DR. FIDO It may seem far fetched but a dog may be a better way to find out if you have diabetes or malaria.  It's true, they can sniff it out.  Read more here

I'M GOING TO STOCKPILING SNOTTY TISSUES NOW As apparently there are suckers people out there who will buy USED TISSUES to hedge against getting the flu.  SERIOUSLY??? And for $80 a pop!  And they are sold out!  Here's a handy video that tells you nothing.  

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